Market Update

April began on a positive note, supported by economic data that aligns with our Goldilocks view – reasonable economic growth and subdued inflation.
Chinese PMI data from March 31, 2019, indicated that recent policy stimulus is stabilizing the country's economy. The manufacturing PMI in China returned to expansion, rising to 50.5 from February's 49.2 – the most significant monthly increase since March 2012. Readings above 50 signify expansion, easing concerns about a global growth slowdown, given China's status as the world's second-largest economy.
In the US, the ISM index rose to 55.3 in March, signaling a rebound in manufacturing, as February's reading of 54.2 was the lowest since November 2016.
Regarding US retail sales, there was a mix of positive and negative news: January's figures were revised up to 0.7% from 0.2%, but February's sales declined by 0.2%. Given that consumer spending drives over two-thirds of the US economy, this adds pressure on the Fed to consider reducing US interest rates.
While the US economy added 196,000 jobs in March, potentially supporting future consumer spending, wage growth slowed to 3.2%, indicating muted inflation in the US.
Additionally, US-China trade talks resumed, with both sides suggesting they are close to a deal that President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could sign soon.
In the UK, political analysts have plenty to dissect regarding Brexit developments. At the time of writing, it seems we might be moving closer to a soft Brexit.
Looking ahead to the upcoming week, focus will be on the minutes from the last Fed monetary policy meeting (held on March 19-20, 2019). Additionally, there are Israeli elections, and data-wise, we can expect US and Chinese CPI inflation figures, UK GDP data, and an ECB monetary policy meeting.